Infection Fatality Rate of <0.1% for those aged under 70
26 September 2021 – living document
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Infection Fatality Rate Of <0.1% For Those Aged Under 70
A note on the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths
In measuring Covid-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), countries like the UK, Australia, Israel and the USA include figures of people with Covid-19 on their death certificate. This includes people that die both ‘with’ and ‘from’ Covid-19.
On 29 August 2021, NSW Health (Dr Jeremy McAnulty) clarified that that CFR data reported includes deaths that are the consequence of other health conditions.
In Australia, the median age of death from Covid-19 is 86, mostly in people with pre-existing co-morbidities. (Average age of death in Australia in 2018 was 82.8)
‘Some cases have recovered from Covid and then died of something else’ (e.g. a pre-existing chronic health condition)
‘It is often difficult for doctors to determine the extent to which Covid contributed to a person’s death’
‘When elderly people die, they often have a range of comorbidities and age increases risk of death’.NSW Health (Dr Jeremy McAnulty)
For example, in NSW a 15-year-old boy who died of acute meningitis, a 27-year-old who died of acute heart failure and a 90-year-old who died of a terminal illness while in palliative care are listed as Covid-19 fatalities, as they also tested positive (but did not die from it).
NSW Health switches to recording patients as dying ‘with’ Covid instead of ‘from’ after finally acknowledging many of Australia’s 993 casualties died from something else or had even recovered from the virus
In Australia, overall mortality associated with the Alpha variant was 2.9% of confirmed Covid-19 cases since the start of the pandemic in 2020 to July 2021, prior to the appearance of the Delta variant.
The Delta variant is now responsible nearly all new cases of Covid-19 and associated with a 0.4% mortality rate.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) at a glance infographic collection
A note on risk factors associated with Covid-19
Obesity has been strongly associated with susceptibility to Covid-19. Studies are consistently confirming that patients with obesity (BMI > 25) appear to have a greater risk of infection, hospitalisation, clinically severe disease, mechanical ventilation, ICU admission, and mortality due to Covid-19
Obesity is often associated with chronic inflammatory conditions such as diabetes, hypertensive and cardiac conditions. Other risk factors include (but not limited to) age (strong correlation), general health status, socio-economic and/or nutritional status (eg. Vitamin D/ zinc deficiency).
COVID-19 has an Infection Fatality Rate of <0.1% for those aged under 70
For a disease that has an infection fatality rate of <0.1% for most of the population (aged <70 years), the usefulness of mass vaccination programs is currently questionable, especially in the absence of robust safety data.
Even in the elderly, aged >70 years, the recovery rate from Covid-19 is in the range of the claimed effectiveness of the currently approved vaccines.
Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 across all locations from 61 studies globally
Risk of death from Covid-19 is strongly correlated with age and co-morbidities such as obesity (which indicates the presence of other chronic inflammatory conditions such as diabetes and hypertensive disorders). The majority of “Cases” are occurring in the under 50s, and the majority of those who are in the over 70’s (91.4%)
Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers and statistics
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare released a report on the September 10 2021.
“Health Insights from the first year of COVID-19 in Australia.“
- 75% of all COVID-19 deaths occurred in those living in residential aged-care facilities (P.4)
- Only 3% ended up in ICU (P.7)
- Natural Infection may provide lifelong immunity – and a recent study suggests at least 8 months (P.9)
- They are now more aware of a range of treatments from corticosteroids to blood thinners to reduce the risk of death in certain patients. (p.11)
(Note: There are a lot more treatments and advice that could be given early to prevent severity & hospitalization – currently no treatment recommendations are provided on the Health.gov.au COVID-19 information site for those who test Positive other than quarantine, wash hands, and notify your contacts. Knowing what to do if you test positive, would drastically reduce severity and the terror and state of fear our communities have been experiencing these past 18 months – which I’ll document in another section.)
- The TGA has only registered the vaccines for provisional approval, and only after the safety, quality and effectiveness of the vaccine is established will it be a full registration can be granted – and only then, can the Australian Government determine whether it will include them in its subsidised immunisation program. (P.12)
- At the time of writing, evidence was still emerging on how effectively the current COVID-19 vaccines reduce infection rates or stop transmission of the virus. (P.13)
- Vaccinated ‘may have’ breakthrough infections (still get COVID-19) (P.13)
- That the initial vaccine trials only had “reduction of disease” as their main outcome, rather than “reduction in transmission of the virus”. (P.13)
- Even with a high proportion of people vaccinated, it is still unclear whether herd immunity will be possible, or whether available vaccines will be effective against new variants. (P.14)
- The vaccines were fast-tracked and the first US clinical trials began 66 days after the RNA sequences was uploaded to the gene-bank by China and that three contracts were signed before we had any safety-evidence or trial data to review. (P.15)
- The Pfizer vaccine implements new technology using mRNA (‘messenger RNA’) that enables cells to make a protein which triggers an immune response to produce antibodies against the virus. (P.16)
- The TGA’s provisional approval was based on Pfizer’s clinical trials (p.17)
- The effectiveness of Pfizer was studied in vaccination programs in Israel, USA, and UK. (P.19-20)
- The effectiveness of AstraZeneca using UK data (P.22-23)
- There is not yet definitive proof that vaccination stops transmission of the virus. (P.24)
- Evidence is still emerging on how well they prevent transmission of the virus or how long any immunity from natural infection or vaccination lasts. (P.25)
- 909 deaths from COVID-19 “notified through surveillance systems” – 58% were over the age of 85 (34% over age 90) (P.26) (average Life Expectancy in Australia in 2018 was 82.8)
- COVID Deaths were below 1% for those younger than 59yo
- 12.5% positive cases admitted to hospital
- 225 hospitalizations involving ICU
- 75% were people living in residential aged-care facilities
- A “death” due to COVID is defined as a death “resulting from a clinically compatible illness” in a “probable” or confirmed COVID case – unless they died in a car accident, etc
- 89% of deaths were in Vic
- 88% of deaths had associated causes listed – an average of 2.4 associated causes
- Over half had another causal condition and 73% had pre-existing chronic conditions
- Pneumonia was the most common condition (56%)
- Respiratory failure, other infections, cardiac complications and renal failure were other common conditions
- Dementia was an associated cause in 41% of deaths and is already the 2nd leading cause of death in the general Australian population due to influenza and pneumonia
- Australia’s rate of deaths per million were 0.9
- Australia recorded “lower than expected total mortality” compared with last 5 years
- Influenza/Pneumonia were lower (we know they stopped testing that – so we can show that – even though they failed to disclose that in the report)
- “It is not possible to differentiate between dying of or dying with COVID-19”
- “The median age at death for COVID-19 registered deaths was 87 years, which is higher than that for all causes of death in 2020 which is 83 years of age. In other words, having CV-19 adds 4 years to your life expectancy?! (Or that the infection didn’t really change life expectancy)
Currently Available Data
Up to 5 September 2021, in Australia 1,031 deaths have been reported in people ‘from’ and/or ‘with’ Covid-19. Of these:
• 15 have occurred in the under 50s (1.5% of deaths, or 0.02% of total confirmed cases)
• 89 have occurred in the under 70s (8.6% of deaths, or 0.14% of total confirmed cases)
• 942 have occurred in the over 70s (91.4% of deaths, or 1.5% of total confirmed cases).
The overall median age of death is 86 – above the usual average age expectancy for males and females.
Of these 1,031 reported deaths, 910 had already occurred during the previous Alpha variant waves (820 in Victorian nursing homes in winter 2020) prior to the appearance of the Delta variant wave from July 2021. Since Delta, total confirmed Covid-19 cases have doubled (since the start of the pandemic), with 121 deaths.
Recent UK figures do not show a clear overall difference between case numbers and mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. In Covid-19 cases attending emergency care between 1 Feb & 29 Aug 2021:
- Unvaccinated people accounted for 29.8% of total deaths from Delta, whereas double-vaccinated people accounted for 60.7% of total deaths.
- In the over-50s, unvaccinated people accounted for 9.5% of total deaths, whereas double-vaccinated people accounted for 72.3% of deaths.
These data suggest that the overall risk of mortality from Covid-19 is low and has dropped markedly since the appearance of the Delta variant. Covid-19 vaccines are novel, experimental drug technologies that lack short-, medium-, or long-term safety profiles. They have been given Provisional approval, with experimental trial periods that expire in 2023. Despite government and media messaging, they cannot – and were not designed to – prevent transmission of the virus.
In Australia, there have been 495 reports of death and 55,016 adverse events following immunisation reported to the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) to 29 August 2021. Overall, people who receive the vaccine have a two- to six-fold increased risk of a severe adverse event compared to those who do not receive the vaccine.
The risk-benefit ratio of Covid-19 vaccination rapidly inverts with decreasing age, particularly in the under 70 age brackets (subject to co-morbidity factors), who are at negligible risk of dying from Covid (0.14% mortality).
Government and mainstream media characteristically avoid/suppress any independent public or independent scientific debate concerning this risk-benefit scenario or alternative Covid prevention and treatment strategies.